Friday, 14 January 2011

Australian Open Draw - Rafa's draw broken down

Here is the draw in full

Well the draw has been kind to Rafa :)  He avoided 2 of the 3 people I didn't want him to play, Del Potro & Novak.  I would of liked Nalbandian to be elsewhere in the draw but considering that he is now in the Final in Auckland means he may be a bit tired should he get to meet Rafa in the QF.

Murray is once again in Rafa's half of the draw along with Soderling.  Looking at the other players in the 2nd section (bottom half of the top half if you follow me) I can't see the potential SF opponent being anyone other than Robin or Andy.  Melzer & Tsonga may put together a decent run but Big J is on his way back from a long injury layoff and it is still to be seen if Melzer will carry on the 2010 form.

As for Rafa's section this is who i expect him to play:

Round 1 - Marcos Daniel (96).  This guy has won 1 match in his entire career on HC, 1 out of 23.  I don't think we need to worry about this match.

Round 2 - Most likely Daniel Gimeno-Traver (58). Again not much of a threat.

Round 3 - Feli Lopez is the seed from this section and is joined by Tomic, Chardy & Falla.  Feli may be able to cause a few problems but again neither of these players is a major threat.

Round 4 - Isner & Cilic are the seeds in this section.  I would of prefered not to have John here as his serve is a major weapon but his form against the top players is not that great.  Cilic is in awful form so that is a good draw for Rafa.  I expect this match to be against Isner and for it to be a hard fought win for Rafa.

Quarter Final - Youzhny, Llodra, Nalbandian & Ferrer are the seeds from this section.  Another dangerman in Hewitt has been drawn against Nalbandian in the 1st round so that is good news.  I expect either Youzhny or Ferrer to be the opponent here with not many problems of Rafa reaching the Semi Final.

Semi Final - Soderling, Bellucci, Gulbis, Tsonga, Melzer, Baghdatis, Garcia-lopez are the seeds from this section and looking at the non-seeded players cannot see where the upsets will come so that it is not Robin v Andy in their Quarter Final.  Maybe Melzer could cause Andy some problems if he is in form, same too for Big J against Robin.  All that said I can't say who it will be but it will be either Andy, Robin or Big J to play the semi final.

Final - I really don't care.  The other player in the final (if it is Rafa) will have to play exceptional tennis to beat him.  I think I will come back to this once we get nearer the time :)

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